Hybrids On Steroids! Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle
Technology Offers The Best Of Both Gas And Electric Worlds
Half-electric, half gas, and extremely green, plug-in hybrid
vehicles promise new levels of energy efficiency -- plus significant market
opportunities for electronics makers
by Lee H. Goldberg
It may not be too long before you'll be able to buy a five passenger
sedan or small minivan that runs on batteries around town, burns conventional
fuel on the highway, and delivers an impressive 70 - 80 mpg equivalent fuel
efficiency. Dubbed "plug-in hybrid electric vehicles" (PHEVs)
by their proponents, their ability to use grid-produced power for many daily
transportation needs could provide drivers with the best features of electric
and internal combustion power while allowing electric utilities to even
out peaks in their baseline loads for increased profits and lower pollution.
For electronics manufacturers, they represent a large potential market for
the power control and storage systems that will drive these unique vehicles.
In a recent seminar held by the Association of Energy Service Professionals (AESP), representatives
from the Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI), Austin Energy (a municipal electric company), and
Southern California Edison provided some surprising insights on why PHEVs
may account for a significant fraction of the cars and vans on the road
as early as 2010.
Also known as "gasoline-optional"
vehicles or "hybrids on steroids," PHEVs have both a petroleum-fired
and an electric motor, but carry a much larger pack of high-capacity Li-Ion
or Ni-MH cells than conventional hybrids. While they would not deliver the
100+ mile range most users would need from an all-electric, the lighter,
less expensive battery packs would store enough energy for most local trips
(20 to 60 miles) and rely on the gas engine for longer journeys (see Fig. 1a). This would mean that
a car used for short commutes and local grocery runs would draw most of
its power from a wall plug while it sat parked overnight. At an estimated
4 mile/kWH for a first-generation PHEV, the "fuel" costs would
be a quarter of a conventional auto at current gasoline prices. And, even
with the losses involved with generating and delivering the electricity
to the car's batteries, a power plant charging a PHEV contributes creates
much less CO2 per mile than even an equivalent straight hybrid car (see
Fig. 1b).
Initial studies indicate that 1st-generation HPEVs will deliver 20 -
30% improvement in energy efficiency over "straight" hybrid technology.
And because of their extremely efficient drivetrains, relatively simple
modifications such as low-rolling resistance tires, a 10% mass reduction,
and moderate aerodynamic improvements could boost efficiency by another
30+%.
Utilities have lots of reasons to want PHEVs on the road. Most obviously
they would represent an excellent market for unused capacity that sits idle
during late evening hours. Charging vehicle batteries while most of the
world is asleep could shift a large chunk of energy demand to baseline generating
facilities which often use low-emission, high-efficiency combined cycle
natural gas-fired technologies. PHEVs also make a ready-made repository
for wind- or hydro-generated electricity which is on tap regardless of demand.
Initial studies indicate that a mid-sized PHEV with a 20-mile range will
be able to achieve full charge in a bit under five hours from a standard
120 V ac outlet, and around nine hours for a battery load for a 60-mile
range. And if the vehicle has access to a higher 220 V ac service the charge
times are cut nearly in half. The electric utilities are considering several
different metering schemes to encourage their customers to make best use
of the off-peak capacity. Concepts under study include offering PHEV owners
a discounted rate for all their electricity, installing a time-of-day metering
system that offered discounts for off-peak energy, or installing a second
dedicated meter for the vehicle charger that would be billed at a lower
rate.
While there are currently
no PHEVs on the market, several manufacturers are engaged in development
programs to begin limited production before the end of the decade. Panelist
Bob Graham of EPRI describes a pilot program that they've been working on
with Daimler-Chrysler for several years, which includes six prototype HPEV
vans based on Daimler's Sprinter model (see Fig. 2).
Developed in Europe, the vans have a permanent-magnet electric motor
inserted between their diesel engine and transmission with a clutch to disconnect
the motor for all-electric operation (see Fig. 3). In its hybrid mode the electric motor can be used
to provide more power for hills and passing, or as a regenerative brake.
The van's Li-Ion battery pack has been sized that a nominal 20-mile journey
will use between 60 % and 80 % of their capacity, with longer trips using
a mix of diesel and electric. Graham says that this "series" configuration
makes it easy to adapt conventional designs and production lines to accommodate
a PHEV drivetrain. The next phase involves producing 20 more plug-in hybrid
vans in 2006, with limited production slated for 2008/9.
Graham acknowledged that as with any emerging technology PHEVs have many
technical and market hurdles to overcome before they achieve commercial
success. For example, the cost of the vehicle's Li-Ion batteries is still
substantial, and still adds too much to the cost of a vehicle to be cost-effective
in most applications. But Graham was confident that a growing demand for
the batteries is encouraging manufacturers to bring much more production
capacity on-line and allow economies of scale that will drive down prices
dramatically by the time PHEVs are in full production. In addition, manufacturers
producing PHEV technologies should be able to use their advanced electric
drivetrains as an easy migration path to either fuel-cell powered or all-electric
vehicles as battery and fuel cell prices mature.
But despite the apparent market demand for conventional hybrids, PHEVs
still face a "chicken and egg" problem with normally-conservative
auto makers who are unsure that there will be enough customers willing to
pay an estimated $5,000 premium for the first vehicles to roll off the line.
The price differential between all-petro-cars and PHEVs is expected to shrink
as the development and costs are amortized and the electric drivetrain components
move down the cost/quantity curve towards full production volumes, but this
does not solve the initial problem of convincing Ford, GM, or Daimler/Chrysler
to take the first step. Mark Kapner, a senior. strategy planner at Austin
Energy described initiative that they have developed to break this deadlock.
In a bold move to jump-start PHEV demand, Austin Energy and several other
utilities are working with Detroit auto makers on a "market generation"
program, named Plug-In
Austin. The program's main focus is a campaign to obtain "soft
orders" for PHEVs, to assure the manufacturers that there will be customers
who have already committed to buy plug-ins when they become available. Meanwhile,
EPRI is working with the Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC) on a study to make sure that there
is enough surplus baseline power to support widespread charging of plug-ins
at night while other demand is low.
So far, pledges from Austin-area municipalities, government, industry,
and private pledges total 10,000, with 1000 actual orders for fleet applications.
The partnership anticipates it should be able to create around 50,000 semi-firm
fleet vehicle orders when the national campaign kicks off in early 2006.
Kapner estimates that since most companies will need 2.5 to 4 years from
the time they decide to put a plug-in on the market, we should see the first
PHEVs rolling off the American assembly lines as early as 2008, but more
likely in the 2009/2010 timeframe.
While PHEVs will not constitute a major fraction of the North American
vehicle fleet for perhaps a decade, even relatively modest 50,000 - 100,000
production levels for hybrids and plug-in hybrids could mean significant
market opportunities for electronics manufacturers. Even at these low production
volumes, the additional $500 - $1,500 worth of electronics used by each
of these vehicles would constitute an additional $25 M - $150 M opportunity
for chip makers and automotive electronics vendors.
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