Solid State Salvation -- While Others Try To
Ignore It, The Solid-State Lighting Industry Positions Itself To Profit
During Upcoming Energy Shortages
by Lee H. Goldberg
With most conventional business strategies floundering in our torpid economy we have to recognize we can't expect yesterday's answers to solve today's problems. The next decade will hold some significant economic upheavals as today's technology jobs continue to migrate overseas, and resources we once thought boundless become increasingly scarce. But while most of America's captains of industry are trying desperately to ignore the imminent recently-discovered natural gas shortage, and other signs of shrinking global resources, some far-sighted entrepreneurs have realized that the so-called "green" technologies represent fantastic opportunities -- both for creating vibrant new industries and for improving our planet's health.
This new generation of "eco-preneurs" is creating highly-profitable businesses based on technologies that conserve, recycle, or replace the many natural resources we've taken for granted during the 20th century. One excellent example is the embryonic solid-state lighting industry, which promises to both reduce our energy consumption and improve the quality of our lives.
While LED-based lamps still face many challenges to bring their efficiencies up, and their price down, they hold the promise of delivering high-quality light while consuming up to 75% less power than their incandescent cousins. And given the fact that lighting consumes 22-23% of electrical energy, or 7-10% of all energy consumed in the US, it's easy to understand how the adoption of solid-state lighting by even a fraction of the country could make a significant impact on our energy imports, and our impact on global warming.
That's what brought me to Dallas, TX, last month to attend the world's first global LED-fest at "Blue 2003." Organized by Jo Ann McDonald, the one-woman cheerleading squad and grand dame of the compound semiconductor industry, the event gave me the opportunity to meet most of the pioneers who were in Dallas to measure their progress, and gauge the road ahead. While Blue 2003 provided a forum for all aspects of multi-spectral LED technology at least half of the conference sessions were devoted to the development and commercialization of solid-state lighting.
LED-based lamps are already popular in applications where their long life (100,000 hours, or more) and versatility make up for their relatively high cost. They've already found niche markets in traffic signals, outdoor displays, and providing light in hard-to-service locations. While not (yet) as efficient as compact fluorescent bulbs LED-based lamps are extremely durable, can operate in much colder temperatures, and offer a stunning array of colors and spectral options that are just not available with other devices. And unless the industry develops a program for recycling most, or all, compact fluorescent bulbs, we'll be facing serious contamination issues from the mercury they contain. This alone could significantly accelerate the growth of the solid-state lighting market.
Even at their current efficiency levels of 10% - 15%, LEDs used for lighting deliver nearly twice the lumens per watt as incandescent lamps, making them very popular in solar-powered and hand-cranked flashlights and low-level lighting systems. Even not counting the millions of cell phones, dash boards, and PDA screens they illuminate, lighting-oriented LEDs are expected to enjoy a healthy $141 million in sales this year. And that's expected to rise to over $1 billion by 2007 as efficiency and costs continue to improve.
In order to hit this mark, the cost per lumen, and the lumens-per-watt will have to continue on the steady growth curve they have enjoyed over the past decade. The steady improvements have brought LED lighting well above the 15 - 20 lumens per watt of conventional incandescent lamps, and one manufacturer (Nichia) is producing experimental devices that delivers 50 l/W. Most experts expect to see devices approaching the 80 l/W achieved by compact fluorescent within the next few years -- perhaps by 2010, or earlier. With a theoretical efficiency of 50% or more (Sandia Labs have already demonstrated AlIn on GaN devices with 50%+ efficiency), we should have solid-state lights yielding up to a 10x increase in savings over 20 year development period.
Of course there are several other obstacles to overcome before we start shopping for LED lamps next to the compact fluorescents in Home Depot. For one thing, price is still way up there. With the first 1000-lumen lamp (equivalent to a 60-W incadescent) coming on the market soon at a price of about $125 it's pretty obvious we have a ways to go in price reduction. Improvements in substrates will help tremendously to cut costs down to size. The industry is still struggling with both wafer size (usually 3 inches these days) and material compatibility issues that surround the sapphire substrates used to produce most white/blue LEDs. While materials companies work diligently to produce larger sapphire wafers with the quality and matrix orientation required for growing LEDs, other companies are working hard to develop Galium Nitride- (GaN) based devices, and processes to produce GaN wafers as large as 6 inches in diameter. Efforts to produce LEDs on silicon are underway. Given the steady progress we've seen to date, we can expect a slightly shallower, but distinctly Moore-like cost curve that will bring LED lighting to general commercial viability within five to seven years.
Meanwhile, every incremental improvement in efficiency or cost opens up a new market for these devices. That's probably why pioneering companies like Nichia and Cree are now finding themselves competing with new-comers like Lumileds (a joint venture between Philips and Agilent), and GELcore (a collaboration of GE and Emcore) who are hoping to cash in on the upcoming boom. Other visionaries are also joining the market developing the fixtures, cooling systems, and other support technologies required to turn clusters of discrete devices into room-illuminating lamps.
So, while LED-based lighting will not save the world by itself, I'm hoping that they can eventually shave off 3% - 5% of the total baseline energy load in America -- considerably more than the ill-conceived plan to drill in Alaska's National Wilderness Area will ever produce. Equally important, the solid-state lighting industry is a highly visible example of how green technologies can provide products that are both environmentally-sustainable and open up new economic opportunities. If you want to follow the lighting revolution, the boom in high-efficiency solar cells, and other exciting developments in the non-silicon semiconductor world, drop by Jo Ann Mcdonald's web site and subscribe today.
The coming decade will present many challenges that will prove to be either our downfall or opportunities to provide economic and social leadership. For the sake of all our children's futures, I am hoping there are enough eco-preneurs out there to create the innovative technologies, products, and services that will usher in a new era of prosperous environmentalism.
Questions? Comments? Ideas for new green industries? Write me at: lgoldberg@green-electronics.com.